In order to believe in peak oil, you have to ignore economics, chemistry and history
economics (supply goes up, consumption goes down with price)
That is why we have recently had a series of dramatic announcements of new discoveries
- the recent high oil prices have brought much new exploration which has found more
supplies. (see below list of articles)
chemistry (you can make the stuff)
The Fischer–Tropsch (also: fischer-tropsch.org) process and the Bergius process,
both used from the 1930s on, make liquid fuels form coal. Methane instead of coal
can also be used a starting point. Sasol has been producing commercial quantities
of oil from both processes for years.
History (Hitler ran a war on manmade oil)..
The Role of Synthetic Fuel In World War II Germany Said this: “The percentage of
synthetic fuels compared to the yield from all sources grew from 22 percent to more
than 50 percent by 1943"
Recent news stories suggest that in a few years we will have more money on our pocket
due to falling energy prices.
Fraking has dramatically expanded natural gas supplies and this has already forced
the price of natural gas lower. On top of this, a December 23, 2010 New York Times
story reports that refining a gallon of diesel fuel from natural gas only costs 50
cents compared to 31 cents from oil. This means that lower natural gas prices provide
a vast new source of liquid fuels as long as gas is a little cheaper than crude for
an equivalent energy content. The article reports that diesel made from natural gas
is 85 cents per gallon cheaper than from oil. Now it is almost certain to be an even
bigger difference. Sasol has been doing this on a commercial scale for decades and
is now expanding into North America.
The second really big good news is that fraking is rapidly expanding our crude oil
supply. On May 28, 2011, the New York Times reported that one new oil field (Bakken)
went from “a trickle” to 400,000 barrels per day in just four years and could reach
one million per day by the end of of the decade! Another is now producing 100,000
barrels per day and is expected to increase to 420,000 per day by 2015.
Against a background of the USA importing about 9.7 million barrels per day (2009),
this is soon to lower our imports by 20%. And this new technology is just in its
One can easily project the application of this process to many more fields and a
complete end of oil imports with the price dropping to close to the production cost,
instead of being set by a cartel.
This will lower our energy costs and free up money for other uses - better food,
better vacations, better clothes for the kids. All are an improvement to American’s
standard of living, an increase in America’s livability!